Here Comes The Rain

Radar at 7:45am on 111003Here comes the first rain of the season. The radar loop shows a slow eastward progression; most of the motion is southwest to northeast. Forecast total rain accumulations have increased from yesterday’s projections. Dislike.

16 thoughts on “Here Comes The Rain

    1. John M. Kelly Post author

      Thomas – I was thinking of you guys when I saw the storms shaping up out your way. Difficult vintage all around.

      Reply
    1. John M. Kelly Post author

      James – keep an eye on it. I’d worry a little if I had not put out a preventative fungicide.

      Reply
  1. Thomas Pellechia

    Preventative fungicide!

    Have you given up your demeter???

    Incidentally, I concur with your choice of preventative over preventive–the former referring to a noun, the latter to a concept. Right on.

    Reply
    1. John M. Kelly Post author

      Thomas – Demeter is my muse, not my ruler.

      If preventative is the noun shouldn’t I have used “fungicidal” as the adjective? 😉

      Reply
  2. Thomas Pellechia

    You could have said that, but that would change preventative from an adjective to a noun and fungicide from a noun to an adjective–you might as well make a noun into a voib: “friended” anyone lately?

    Reply
    1. John M. Kelly Post author

      I think “fungicidal preventative” is perfectly valid. No, I haven’t friended anyone in a few days, but I have fungicided the vineyard.

      Reply
  3. Thomas Pellechia

    Picked up my Gewurztraminer juice today. I was told that the weather is wreaking havoc and that the Oct 22 date for Riesling is likely to become October 12 to 15.

    Even though the sun plans to shine for the next four days, photosynthesis will be hard to come by as daytime temperatures linger between the high 60s to low 70s (there is a rumor that we will reach 80 on Sunday, but one day won’ be enough).

    Drought for six weeks in the summer and rain for six weeks in autumn–if not for its timing, you have to love nature for its sense of humor.

    Reply
    1. John M. Kelly Post author

      We’ve had showers and thunderstorms since the front passed through before dawn Wednesday. It won’t get to 65°F today but at least we have some gusty winds. Ridging expected tomorrow, with a stronger ridge moving in by next Wednesday bringing temps into the 80s and maybe even 90s through the extended forecast. Maybe we’ve caught a break.

      Reply
    1. John M. Kelly Post author

      That is an amazing number, but certainly fits with observations. I have not talked to anyone who has seen anything like this before. The billion dollar question is – is this a 4-5 standard deviations from the mean event? Or is it the new normal?

      I’m hoping to finish harvest tomorrow – a full two weeks earlier than last year (which dragged on due to rain). This year it is not rain driving the picking decision but the likelihood of hard frost after the cold front passes

      Reply
  4. Peter O'Connor

    John,
    Looking back to 1902 (Santa Rosa), there seems to be a slight uptrend (the 1902-2011 average has 2,754 degree days vs. 2,963 (1951-2010)) and two ledges: 1983-1986 and 2008-2011; these two patterns commonly anticipate a major trend reversal.
    2011 (1,833 DDs) was the coldest growing season since 1902, followed by 1911 (1,954 DDs), 1986 (2,105), 2010 (2,144) and 1919 (2,189). One standard deviation equals 334 DDs for Santa Rosa.
    Good luck with your harvest!

    Reply
  5. Pingback: 2011 Vintage—Not That Bad! « notes from the winemaker

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